digg

Join DiggAbout

Discover the best of the web!
Learn more about Digg by taking the tour.

The Apple Keynote Index Fund

keynoteindexfund.com — Can you make money investing in Apple stock the day before a Macworld keynote and selling a day or two later? What if you did it every year before and after Macworld?

Bury
show profanity settings
expand all
  • JeffreyLloyd, on 01/02/2008, -5/+47They bought the url just for that?
    • wonderchemist, on 01/02/2008, -1/+21URL's are cheap. Ads are disguised as site navigation like links, increasing click though rate.
      • w9thwonder, on 01/02/2008, -0/+4There were ads on that website? Stupid Firefox blocked them again. I really wanted to see them this time.
    • yeahbuddy, on 01/02/2008, -1/+5It's called "stock pumping."

      They are hoping to make money by publicizing this, hoping everyone jumps in and helps their cause.
      • dondara, on 01/02/2008, -1/+9APPL is little pricey for the "pump and dump" scheme. You pick stocks that are $.03 that soar to $.10 and you've tripled your money.
        • nobodyfresh, on 01/02/2008, -0/+4Those same $.03 stocks are also much more likely to drop to $.01 as opposed to AAPL dropping from it's current $194.84 to $64.94.
  • Derfy, on 01/02/2008, -0/+10I dunno, I found the information interesting.
  • RubberBinder, on 01/02/2008, -0/+8Or you could just buy it somewhere between keynotes, and keep it for a while then when you're ready to sell you do so right after a keynote. I don't know but I think the profit margin my way seems like it wold be much higher. =/
    • pitlord, on 01/03/2008, -0/+1I like the way you think.
      ^^
      Think RubberBinder?
  • truspect0r, on 01/02/2008, -24/+6The real question is does the Mac has games?
    • rockefeller2, on 01/02/2008, -3/+14The real question is does you has grammar class today?
    • CATSCEO, on 01/02/2008, -1/+4Yes.
    • dondara, on 01/02/2008, -4/+9Because thats all it's about. Screw work, art and science. The only reason to spend thousands on a computer is play games. No really, I hear ya. Games are important. I mean what would you do with out them? Meet girls? Explore nature? Travel? Learn? Yeah, ***** all that, just keep playing games.
    • zweben, on 01/02/2008, -3/+7You can install Windows on a Mac, so they can play just as many games as any other Windows PC. Actually more, because you've got Mac games too.
    • pitlord, on 01/03/2008, -0/+1Considering the newest Macs were said to run Vista better than their PC equivalents, what do you think?
      -_-
      My guess would be yes, you could even play Crysis with the settings turned down.
      ^^
      Did you know Bungie started out developing games for Mac only?
      m(_ _)m
      Heh, yah I kinda like Macs.
      >.>
      Steve Jobs seem like kind of a dick though.
    • pitlord, on 01/03/2008, -0/+1P.S. I dugg your comment for asking a good question.
  • ddgromit, on 01/02/2008, -0/+18until the year that everyone does this all at once
  • petrodollar, on 01/02/2008, -1/+31Buried for improper use of the term "index fund."
    • dualityim, on 01/03/2008, -0/+1I guess a more appropriate name would be keynote-weighted fund?
    • pitlord, on 01/03/2008, -1/+1@ dualityim: LOL good one. ^^
      @ petrodollar: Aw, come on. This is a good analysis and any fund manager that used this strategy could have some of my money to invest.
      8^D
  • alpinecow, on 01/02/2008, -5/+8One problem: two-way transaction costs on trading less than $10,000 blocks of Apple stock would eat pretty severely into those returns.
    • isnyder, on 01/02/2008, -0/+4Not true. Most online brokerages have transaction costs of $10-15 per trade.
    • ThinkFr33ly, on 01/02/2008, -0/+2No, they wouldn't. Trading costs are close to zero (or zero, in many cases) these days. Even if they were $50/trade ($100 a keynote), you're still only eating a small portion of your returns.

      I use Bank of America's brokerage account, and because I have a decent amount of money in their money market savings account (5.05% APY) I get 30 $0 trades per month.
    • BlurredWeasel, on 01/02/2008, -0/+1Nah, I pay 7 bucks each way. So 14 total. That means that I lose the first 14 dollars I make, everything after is profit.

      Fourteen dollars across $10000 worth of Apple stock is... ($195/share, $10000 = 51 shares)

      $14 dollars with 51 shares = a 27 cent move needed.

      That is a tenth of a percent move. I think that the transaction costs are pretty low here. Now, it's still a damn dangerous trade, just not as hopeless as you make it out to be.
    • nobodyfresh, on 01/02/2008, -0/+2Ever heard of zecco.com ? 10 free stock trades per month with $2500 net equity, or $4.50 otherwise.
  • darlyn, on 01/02/2008, -2/+1Are you reading this, Kevin Rose? Stocks galore!
  • wilcox1010, on 01/02/2008, -8/+2I think mac stock is a great investment. Epically with the new OS Leopard that allows you to install windows.
    • Jimu00, on 01/02/2008, -1/+3I suppose that "is" rather epic...
    • bjs3171, on 01/02/2008, -2/+3huh? that would be the processor, not Leopard. And you could do that a while before the OS came out.
    • dondara, on 01/02/2008, -0/+4*forehead slap*
  • darny, on 01/02/2008, -1/+3the data on this chart is bunk. It only shows data until Jan of last year. I've been a stock holder since about may or so and I've been following the prices before and after the speeches. In my observations, lately the prices have been going down significantly after the speeches. Of course they've bounced back in a big way, but the speeches never really seemed to do anything positive for aapl. I'm just sayin'.
    • darny, on 01/02/2008, -0/+3Sorry forgot to mention...buy on RUMOR, sell on NEWS. Not the other way around.
    • Humptydank, on 01/02/2008, -0/+2Can you post data to substantiate your statement, or is it their researched and cited data vs. your "just saying'?"
  • mikedj, on 01/02/2008, -1/+2Buried for shameless self-posting.
    • BHSPitMonkey, on 01/03/2008, -0/+1It doesn't matter who posts it. Whether the story does well or not is the users' choice.
  • jorhyne1, on 01/02/2008, -1/+3Heres an even easier way to make money: Buy a domain name, put up some interesting information (kind of) , and tack on some google ads. Instant profit!
  • chkdg8, on 01/02/2008, -1/+2Man, how I wish I bought back in the late nineties. Everybody wishes.
    • oOLiquidNightOo, on 01/02/2008, -0/+2you don't have to go all the way back to the 90's. it was trading at $75 roughly around october of last year.
  • rosullivan, on 01/02/2008, -1/+1This was a very informative article, well-analyzed if you ask me.
  • kingyubba, on 01/02/2008, -0/+5dugg for the disclaimer.
  • adrianc1982, on 01/02/2008, -3/+3I was 15 back in '97, but I can buy shares today and thats what i did a couple months ago, I couldnt get on that ride because I was limited by my age and knowlegde, but theres always a chance to start. Anyday, like today or tomorrow. Most of us are geeks and we know these products, we are already doing research each day, why not profit? Someone said here on digg that for us geeks this was like stealing candy to a baby. Happy new year guys!
  • jazh, on 01/02/2008, -0/+1Careful, we don't know how powerful digg is, there may be a small chance (albeit a very small chance) that digg investors know this and will sell hard post keynote meaning the share price will dip (even for a week or so).

    Personally, I feel we should buy google, they have dipped slightly (right now..) and I think Q4 results will beat expectations. That said google is not "cheap" for a quick buck.
  • Harboggles, on 01/02/2008, -1/+1If I get the index can I blow up Apple with the rings from Halo?
  • scottnagle, on 01/02/2008, -0/+1Informative and interesting.
  • Pinkertinkle, on 01/02/2008, -0/+1Why don't you buy a call option instead.
    • iamcam, on 01/02/2008, -0/+1Two reasons: time decay and implied volatility.
      For every day you hold that call option you're losing a little bit every day. You might have gains leading up to the keynote as volatility increases, but it's likely that it can drop significantly after the announcement, at which point a winning trade can still be a loser. And if the stock goes down, you lose even more. I could be wrong and implied vol. might not be affected much by the conference, but if it is, be careful.
  • bmacleod, on 01/02/2008, -0/+0thanks for the heads up
  • tomisina, on 01/02/2008, -1/+2not a great idea... ever heard of short term capital gains?
  • hoggmonster78, on 01/02/2008, -1/+0So you would have profited most when they launched Office 98, and would have lost the most when Steve Jobs took over and they announced OSX?
  • shark615, on 01/02/2008, -0/+2This is stupid. First off in order to buy the volumes necessary to see a decent profit you would need some serious capital to be able to lock up that sort of money in 1 stock. You would be better off looking at more balanced investment strategies
    • BHSPitMonkey, on 01/03/2008, -0/+1Get a loan! Offer your house as collateral!
  • smrekar, on 01/03/2008, -0/+1This needs to note the stock splits, otherwise it looks like more of a roller coaster than a slump.
  • Rkstar, on 01/03/2008, -0/+1The '06 keynote actually launched the Mac Mini, not the iMac. I know this not because i'm a ridiculous fan boy who knows every product release, but because all the rumors were saying the intel iMac was going to be released, and i was going to buy an iMac G5 after the prices dropped. Then they didn't release the new iMac, so I bought it full price. Then they released it two weeks later and dropped the price $300. Every time. Me and Leo Laporte.
  • ibgarrett, on 01/03/2008, -0/+1I wish it went further (farther?) back in time. It used to be you could actually count on the appl stock going down after a keynote. That was the most excellent time to buy.
  • barnicropolis, on 01/03/2008, -0/+1An index fund by definition tracks an index of many stocks in order to diversify away ideosyncratic risk. A trading strategy that only buys Apple stock is in no way an "index fund."
  • indiekiduk, on 01/03/2008, -2/+2Not many Apple stories being submitted to Digg anymore. Where are people off to?
  • indiekiduk, on 01/03/2008, -2/+2Not many Apple stories being submitted to Digg anymore. Where are people off to?
  • encognito, on 01/03/2008, -0/+1That's all well and good but the real problem is coming up with $150,000 dollars to buy $10,000 dollars worth of $15 dollar Apple stock in the first place. At the time, nearly everyone thought that Apple was going to go out of business or be bought out. I was working at the Hewlett Foundation at the time which eventually acquired a 5% stake in eBay. I asked the investment bigwig at the foundation about my thinking about buying Apple @ $15 dollars a share. He thought I was nuts to even be looking at Apple. Of course I was about 24 years old and what did I know, so I didn't buy it. Bad move of course. Buffett said it best, "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."
  • MrViklund, on 01/03/2008, -0/+1Blablablabla... No one bought Apple stocks 1997. It's just a dream to wonder; What if I had?
    Even if you bought it at 100 dollar, that no one thought it would reach, you would have made allot of money.
  • xmarkd400x, on 01/03/2008, -1/+0OMG IF YOU COULD PREDICT STOCK MOVEMENTS YOU COULD MAKE MONEY.

    You can also make money at a casino if you know where the roulette wheel will land every time.

  • NoSalt, on 01/03/2008, -0/+1On a similar note ... I did some figuring one day recently. In December, 1997 Apple was selling for approx. $3.97 a share. If I would have invested a mere $2,000.00 back then I would be approx. $150,000.00 richer today. That makes me very sad.
  •  

    Login or register to add a comment

    Create a new account or login to join in the conversation on Digg. You'll also be able to Digg stories to help promote things you like.


© Digg Inc. 2008 — Content posted by Digg users is dedicated to the public domain.
DIGG, DIGG IT, DUGG, DIGG THIS, Digg graphics, logos, designs, page headers, button icons, scripts, and other service names are the trademarks of Digg Inc.