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Odds Of Recession At 45%, Down From 90% Last Month
nuwireinvestor.com — It wasn ’t too long ago that 71 percent of economists believed we were already in a recession, and even more thought a recession inevitable. Wachovia, which last month put the odds of recession at 90 percent, just downgraded those odds to 45 percent, according to The Wall Street Journal.
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- Qong, on 05/16/2008, -0/+4It's clear that the economy is not yet out of the trouble that it was in; but I don't see a recession happening myself, and I didn't before things started looking up. The Federal Reserve has dropped interest rates a huge amount, that alone was going to keep the banks out of real trouble; as long as the credit market picks back up, I think that things will be fine.
- EA2323, on 05/16/2008, -0/+2I think a recession is coming one way or another, we can't avoid it forever. Wages aren't keeping up with inflation and as a result people are going more and more into debt, we can only artificially sustain spending for so long.
- simpletwist, on 05/16/2008, -2/+1When are we going to stop handing the reins to the Bush family? This country is starting to act like an abused wife, constantly going back to the people who hurt her.
- Lucas123, on 05/16/2008, -0/+3We've don't pretty well economically in this country as of late. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, until the last 25 years, recessions were a common economic event, often occurring every few years. Three of the last four recessions have been unusually short by historical stands, averaging seven months. If we do enter into a recession, it probably won't last long. Chin up!
- Disarticulate, on 05/16/2008, -0/+3Recessions are a state of mind, the more the media witters on about it, the less confident people will feel and the less they'll spend and the more the economy will slow down. It's just a self--fulfilling prophecy. I sometimes think the media is really reckless with this endless scare mongering.
- EA2323, on 05/16/2008, -0/+1You certainly have a point, the media sure isn't making us feel very confident about spending right now. On the other hand would we want them to constantly write about how great the economy is doing and put the blinders on us so we keep spending, despite the fundamentals. That often what I feel the government is trying to do to us. I think the media has a responsibility to report the facts, which in my mind they are doing right now (for the most part anyway). Sure they are constantly harping on how horrible things are, but in reality it is only because things really are bad.
I don't agree that recessions are a state of mind either, especially in our case. How can you say that a recession is not warranted when our nation (both country and consumers personally) have to go into more debt in order to stay out of one. A recession is necessary in our case in order to bring balance. We can't afford to keep living the way we are and we need to make cutbacks, thats the bottom line.
- EA2323, on 05/16/2008, -0/+1You certainly have a point, the media sure isn't making us feel very confident about spending right now. On the other hand would we want them to constantly write about how great the economy is doing and put the blinders on us so we keep spending, despite the fundamentals. That often what I feel the government is trying to do to us. I think the media has a responsibility to report the facts, which in my mind they are doing right now (for the most part anyway). Sure they are constantly harping on how horrible things are, but in reality it is only because things really are bad.
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