None of this guarantees recursive self-improvement is on the horizon. It’s not yet clear that Claude is capable of research judgment—of choosing the right problems to work on.

But if these trends continue, AI systems designing and building their own successors is plausible. This could revolutionize society—medicine, technology, the economy—for the better. But it may also compound alignment issues and ultimately lead to loss of control.

The Anthropic Institute (in collaboration with external stakeholders) will conduct research to think through the implications of increasingly powerful, potentially self-improving systems—and how to create the ability for the world to make deliberate choices about the future development of the technology.

Read the full post: https://www.anthropic.com/institute/recursive-self-improvement

Holy moly, Anthropic is getting very serious about recursive self-improvement!

One word: acceleration.

Insane blog article.

Tl;dr:

•We are close to an AI capable of fully autonomously designing and building its own successor

•They stress this isn’t here yet and isn’t inevitable, but could arrive sooner than most institutions are ready for

•Anthropic engineers now ship on average 8x as much code per quarter as they did in 2021–2025

•Task length AI can reliably complete is doubling roughly every 4 months (up from every 7 months)

•Opus 3 (Mar 2024) handled ~4-minute tasks; Sonnet 3.7 (a year later) ~90-minute tasks; Opus 4.6 (a year after that) 12-hour tasks

•SWE-bench went from low single digits to saturated in two years; CORE-bench (research reproduction) went ~20% to saturated in 15 months

•METR found Claude Mythos Preview could work “at least” 16 hours, at the top of what they can currently measure

•As of May 2026, Claude authored 80%+ of code merged into Anthropic’s codebase (low single digits before Claude Code launched in Feb 2025)

•A March 2026 poll of 130 research staff: median respondent estimated ~4x output with Mythos Preview

•One April 2026 example: Claude shipped 800+ fixes cutting a class of API errors 1,000x, work an engineer estimated would have taken a human four years

•Claude-written code quality: worse than human in late 2025, roughly at parity now, expected to be strictly better within the year

•On the hardest open-ended tasks, Claude’s success rate hit 76% in May 2026, up 50 points in six months

•Code-speedup test: Opus 4 averaged ~3x speedup (May 2025), Mythos Preview ~52x (April 2026); a skilled human needs 4–8 hours to hit 4x

•In an AI-safety research project, Claude agents recovered 97% of a performance gap (vs ~23% for two human researchers in a week), over 800 compute-hours and ~$18K

•On picking the better “next step” in research sessions, the best model beat the human choice 51% (Nov 2025, Opus 4.5) rising to 64% (April 2026, Mythos Preview)

•Human comparative advantage, for now: research taste and judgment, i.e. choosing which problems matter and when an approach is a dead end

Three possible futures

•The trend stalls (S-curve), but today’s capabilities still diffuse widely; they consider this least likely

•Compounding efficiency gains, with humans still setting direction; 100-person firms doing the work of 10,000+; they think this is the likely path

•Full recursive self-improvement, where AI builds its successors and pace is set by compute; the alignment outcome here is what they’re least certain about

I believe the majority still doesn't understand the momentous threshold humanity is facing.

Anthropic itself states quite clearly that even if development ceased entirely, if all development were frozen, they would still witness massive societal changes:

"Even if model capabilities were frozen at today’s level, we would expect major changes to occur in the world. (...) And we are still early in the diffusion of today’s models into the wider economy, where a 100-person company can increasingly do the work of a 1,000-person one, because each employee will sit atop a pyramid of agents."

But there's no question of stagnation. Anthropic itself still maintains that development has exceeded its own internal assumptions. Take that statement seriously for a second and consider it. Although Anthropic models internally and assumes exponential development, even this trajectory lags behind actual development, which is even faster.

"It's happening faster than we thought, and the implications deserve greater attention."

and

"The rate at which AI models improve is accelerating. The length of tasks that they can reliably complete on their own has been doubling roughly every four months, up from an earlier trend of doubling every seven months. In March 2024, Claude Opus 3 could complete software tasks that take humans about four minutes to complete. A year later, Claude Sonnet 3.7 managed tasks that took about an hour and a half. A year after that, Claude Opus 4.6 managed 12-hour tasks.1 If this trend holds, tasks that take a skilled person days could come into range this year.

So again: there can be no question of standing still.

The models are not only getting better, they can also work autonomously for longer. Certainly numerous breakthroughs are still needed, context window is still a problem. But the most likely direction is that the models themselves will find the solutions to the underlying problems. This opens up unforeseen possibilities, and Demis Hassabi's statement that the golden age of science is not a dream, not a utopia, but a purposeful reality, is now confirmed.

And finally, it's not just Anthropic, but also OpenAI, that sees this development, considers it feasible, and is moving forward.

Most people don't know what's coming. But one thing is certain: it's coming even faster than expected. And it will be even bigger.

Myth was just the beginning.

Good thought provoking post from Anthropic. I think this paragraph points to the key element of the optimistic scenario of AI:

“There has been an explosion of new ideas, initiatives, tools, and simulations, as a result of Anthropic employees working with highly capable models—far more than we have the capacity to pursue. The rate at which organizations can spot and fix these bottlenecks may be a skill that improves over time, and it may become the most important skill for any organization.”

AI lowers the barrier dramatically to allowing us to do more. As a result of that, we have far more ideas than we can pursue, and for the ones that we want to pursue we’re ultimately limited by our ability to go take on the surrounding work to execute those ideas. There’s almost no amount of AI progress that can happen where that goes away.

AI is going to let us build much more software, launch more marketing campaigns, research more drugs, and so on. All of this work, even when augmented by agents, still ultimately requires people to manage.

Anthropic says Recursive Self Improvement is approaching faster than they expected.

Quoting from the blog:

'What should we do?

If it were possible to effectively slow the development of this technology to give ourselves more time to deal with its immense implications, we think that would likely be a good thing. But if a slowdown simply lets the least cautious actors catch up technologically, it could leave everyone less safe. Without a global coordination mechanism, companies and governments will have to make difficult decisions about safety while under competitive and geopolitical pressures.

We believe it would be good for the world to have the option to slow or temporarily pause frontier AI development to enable societal structures and alignment research to keep up with the advance of the technology. The Anthropic Institute will conduct research—in collaboration with many others—and take actions to help build the systems that a credible slowdown or pause would require. These systems would enable frontier AI developers to verify that others globally have actually stopped or slowed, and that a bad actor could not use the auspices of a coordinated slowdown to jump ahead in secret. If such systems existed, we expect that we would slow down or temporarily pause, if other developers at or near the frontier also did so in a verifiable manner.

A meaningful slowdown or pause would require multiple well-resourced labs at or near the frontier, in multiple countries, agreeing to stop under the same conditions. It would also require that each can verify that the others have actually stopped. Due to the unique characteristics of AI systems, the detectability (a lower standard than verifiability) element of this arms control problem is much more challenging than with other technologies. Training runs are far easier to conceal than missile silos, their inputs are general-purpose, and the incentive to defect quietly is enormous, because whoever continues while others pause could inherit the lead. A credible pause also has to specify what triggers it, what lifts it, and who adjudicates.

None of this is necessarily impossible in principle—the world has built verification regimes for other complex technologies (e.g., the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty)—but those regimes took decades to build both the infrastructure and the trust. We don’t have that long. A unilateral pause by one lab, by contrast, is achievable immediately, but accomplishes much less: it would change who the front-runner is, but it would not create the wider deliberative process that is currently missing.

In the coming months, we will organize conversations where policymakers, researchers, civil society, and other AI companies can help answer some of the questions this piece raises, especially around full recursive self-improvement and how to create better options for coordination and deliberation. We’ll publish what comes out of it. The window to investigate the questions together is here, and people outside AI companies should be involved in this deliberation.'