Chamath Palihapitiya claims on the All-In podcast that Taiwan will lose strategic importance in semiconductor manufacturing within 18 months due to U.S. advances in 1-2 nanometer process nodes

All of semis (and as such AI) is rate limited depending on how much capacity TSMC wants to plan for year to year

But sure Taiwan loses its strategic importance in 18 months

@Dan_Jeffries1 This is going to change in a couple years, Taiwan won't be necessary. Tariffs will force the evolution in the coming months. Bookmark. Intel $INTC.

@Dan_Jeffries1 That's very true but even if it were not, Taiwan matters first and foremost because of its position, not because of TSMC, as it have been the case for decades.

Here's the U.S. National Security Strategy of November 2025. Has Trump even read it?

@Dan_Jeffries1 $INTC R&D, logic & packaging fabs in North America are on parity with TSMC. Smaller scale, but technological parity is there. All it now requires is scale, which comes from capital expenditure. Plus further investment in semiconductor education & training (TW excellent at this)

@Dan_Jeffries1 First They are not software people They invest in multiple sector include groq, rare earth, battery, robot, drone, car, aircraft

Second Taiwan need US chemical/tech to run their fab

Third US doesn’t need taiwan for chip It’s ASML that US still need but the ASML is also need US

@teomoneyeast @Dan_Jeffries1 ASML doesn’t produce chips though

@Dan_Jeffries1 As a Taiwanese, it’s hilarious to hear him basically say: "We need Taiwan for now, which is awkward. Let’s cut a deal with China to stop arms sales, so once we have our own chip capacity in 18 months, China can do whatever they want to them."

@Mithunkumardev You know exactly zero about global chip supply chains then.

@Dan_Jeffries1 Yeah the forget that first island chain is critical and I likely think this is a fake out so Xi doesn’t make a move in his term.

@Dan_Jeffries1 China finding a way around the EUV bottleneck and BTFOing ASML is unironically the world's best hope.

@Dan_Jeffries1 unpopular take: the taiwan moat is a little overhyped… fabs age like milk

@Dan_Jeffries1 @aleabitoreddit thoughts on China taking Taiwan?

@Dan_Jeffries1 The biggest problem:

If Taiwan is replaceable in 18 months, or even in longer time, why didn’t US or China or some other country already replace?

Stupidest argument I have ever seen

@AndyZMW @Dan_Jeffries1 You are naive. Without advanced chips, 8 out of 10 biggest marketcap (US) companies in the world will be gone, lots of Chinese companies (sanctioned by US now) can take their places in the global market. AI is national power & security.

@Dan_Jeffries1 @grok how much money would Chamath have (vs what he has now) if he had held onto his FB stock instead of selling. More or less?

@Dan_Jeffries1 Just saw this but have two similar pieces

@AndyZMW @Dan_Jeffries1 And why would China allow them to sell chips to US fighter jets like they do now?

@Dan_Jeffries1 But Taiwan is not your toy either too

Taiwanese will figure out themselves and they just need to talk to China and Kmt chairlady is doing that already

@1337_viking @Dan_Jeffries1 "Taiwan builds over 90% of the world’s advanced AI chips, while the remaining balance of roughly 8% to 10% is manufactured elsewhere, primarily in South Korea."

@AWar1586398 @Dan_Jeffries1 18 months is a ridiculous call. At minimum it will take 10-15 years to rebuild our capabilities, and that assumes we make this an absolute priority and stick with it.